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标题

河北怀来盆地近60 a气候变化特征及其影响

作者

许 颖 唐海萍

机构

北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京师范大学资源学院

摘要

利用河北省怀来县1954—2012年月气象数据,采用线性倾向率法,距平法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法揭示了当地的气候变化特征;并分析了气候变化对水库来水量和粮食单产的关系.结果表明: 1) 近60年来,怀来县气候倾向率为0.36℃•(10 a)-1,高于全国平均水平,年降水量呈下降趋势;从季节来看,四季气温均呈上升趋势,降水变化趋势存在差异,四季中以夏季暖干化趋势最明显. 2) 研究区年和四季年代均温都在1980—1989年开始变暖;年降水自1980—1989年开始减少,四季降水量的年代变化差异较大. 3) 研究区小区域尺度上的气候变化趋势与北方较大区域和全国尺度上的结果较为一致,并且暖干化趋势更加明显. 4) 气候要素与水库来水量和粮食单产显著相关,气候暖干化将加剧研究区水库来水锐减和粮食单产较低的问题.

关键词

气候变化; 特征分析; 暖干化; Mann-Kendall趋势检验

引用

许 颖 唐海萍. 河北怀来盆地近60 a气候变化特征及其影响[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 51(3) : 293-298

基金

国家科技部973课题资助项目(2014CB954303)

分类号

P467

DOI

10.16360j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.03.013

Title

Characteristics and impacts of climate change in Huailai Basin during the past 60 years

Author

XU Ying TANG Haiping

Affiliations

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Resource and Technology, Beijing Normal University

Abstract

Based on the monthly meteorological data from 1954—2012 were used to characterize climatic change patterns in Huailai. Linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test method, and correlation analysis were adopted to correlate climate changes with reservoir inflow and agricultural production. It was found that the annual mean temperature gradually rose with a rate of 0.37℃•(10 a)-1 in the past 60 years, higher than the national average. The annual precipitation gradually decreased. Judging from seasonal climatic change, seasonal mean temperature rose generally, but the tendency of seasonal precipitation were different. The warm and dry tendency of summer was more obvious than other seasons. Decadal change of annual and seasonal mean temperature showed that they all started to warm from 1980—1989. Decadal change of annual precipitation began to decrease from the 1980s, and difference in decadal change characteristics of seasonal precipitation was observed. Results of climatic analysis were consistent with researches in larger regions and nationwide research. Climatic elements correlated significantly with inflow to reservoir and yield of grain.

Key words

climate change; characteristic analysis; warming and drying trend; Mann-Kendall test

cite

XU Ying TANG Haiping. Characteristics and impacts of climate change in Huailai Basin during the past 60 years[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2015, 51(3) : 293-298

DOI

10.16360j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.03.013

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
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