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标题

近54年华北平原干旱时空变化特征及其影响因素

作者

刘宪锋 朱秀芳 潘耀忠 李天祺

机构

北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京师范大学资源学院

摘要

利用帕尔默干旱指数(ThePalmerDroughtSeverityIndex,PDSI),辅以经验正交分解(EmpiricalOrthogonal Function,EOF)、趋势分析和相关分析等方法,全面分析了1960—2013年华北平原干旱时空变化特征,并对其影响因素 进行了研究.结果表明:1)近54a华北平原PDSI并无显著变化趋势,而呈阶段性变化特征.分区研究表明,海河平原 PDSI呈下降趋势,而淮河平原PDSI呈上升趋势;2)华北平原PDSI具有显著的空间差异特征,整体呈由东南向西北逐 渐减小的趋势.EOF分析显示,研究区PDSI最主要的空间分布型为南北反向型分布,且干旱变化具有持续性;3)在趋 势上,华北平原呈现显著的“南涝北旱”格局特征,其中北部海河平原PDSI呈下降趋势,而南部淮河平原PDSI则呈增加 趋势;4)华北平原和黄河平原PDSI与南方涛动指数(SOI)和西太平洋副高北界(WPSHNB)关系显著,而淮河平原与东 亚夏季风指数(EASMI)和西太平洋副高强度(WPSHS)具有显著相关性,海河平原仅与SOI达到显著的正相关关系,且 随着时间尺度的变长,PDSI与各环流指数的相关性提高.年代际尺度上,华北平原PDSI主要与SOI关系显著.

关键词

干旱;时空变化;影响因素;华北平原

引用

刘宪锋 朱秀芳 潘耀忠 李天祺.近54年华北平原干旱时空变化特征及其影响因素.[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(Sup.1):1-7.

基金

国家高分辨率对地观测重大专项基金资助项目(民用部分);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(41401479)

分类号

X43;P429

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.001

Title

Spatiotemporal changes of drought and their driving forces in North China Plain in the last 54 years

Author

LIU Xianfeng, ZHU Xiufang, PAN Yaozhong, LI Tianqi

Affiliations

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University; College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University,

Abstract

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was applied in this study to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of drought in the North China Plain and the influence factors from 1960-2013 using empirical orthogonal function (EOF), trend analysis, and correlation analysis. It was found that PDSI of the North China Plain showed no significant change, but with a characteristic of stepwise variation in the 54 year period. Zoning analysis showed that PDSI of Huai River Plain presented an increasing trend, whereas that for Hai River Plain showed a decreasing trend. Marked spatial differences in PDSI were observed in the study area, with a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. In addition, the main spatial distribution pattern of PDSI in the whole study area was the north and south reverse distribution, and the drought was sustained based on EOF analysis. The trend of PDSI exhibited a significant “south flood and north drought” feature, of which the PDSI of northern part and southern part showed decreasing and increasing trends, respectively. PDSI of the North China Plain and the Yellow River Plain were significantly correlated to the southern oscillation index (SOI) and West Pacific Subtropical High Northern Boundary (WPSHNB), PDSI in Huai River Plain was significantly correlated to East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI) and West Pacific Subtropical High Strength (WPSHS), PDSI in Hai River Plain was only significantly correlated to SOI. The correlation coefficients between PDSI and circulation indexes increased, on longer time scales. On a decadal scale, PDSI of the North China Plain was mainly affected by SOI.

Key words

drought; spatiotemporal; influence factors; the North China Plain

cite

LIU Xianfeng, ZHU Xiufang, PAN Yaozhong, LI Tianqi. Spatiotemporal changes of drought and their driving forces in North China Plain in the last 54 years [J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2015,51(Sup.1):1-7.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.001

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn