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标题

中国农作物水灾风险分析

作者

孙章丽 朱秀芳 潘耀忠 张锦水

机构

北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室

摘要

水灾是造成中国农作物产量损失的主要因素之一,对农作物水灾风险进行分析可有效防治农作物水灾灾情, 减少农作物因水灾造成的损失.本文基于正态信息扩散风险分析模型,在灾情指标及农作物播种面积的基础上,详细分 析了我国各省农作物水灾风险,并从宏观上对全国农作物水灾风险强度进行分级阐述,最后从灾情范围和灾情程度两方 面进一步讨论了全国农作物水灾风险情况,为我国农作物种植规划及水灾防治提供理论参考,为中国农作物水灾风险的 进一步深入分析奠定基础.

关键词

农作物;水灾;信息扩散;风险分析

引用

孙章丽, 朱秀芳, 潘耀忠, 张锦水.中国农作物水灾风险分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(Sup.1):23-31.

基金

国家高分辨率对地观测重大专项基金资助项目(民用部分);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(41401479)

分类号

X43

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.004

Title

Risk Analysis of Agricultural Flood in China

Author

SUN Zhangli, ZHU Xiufang, PAN Yaozhong

Affiliations

State Key Laboratory of Earth Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University

Abstract

Flood disaster is one of the most important causes for the loss of crop yield. It is meaningful to study agricultural flood risk. Index of disaster loss and sown area of crops were used in the assessment of agricultural flood risk in 31 provinces by the risk analysis model of normal information diffusion. By such modelling, the 31 provinces can be classified into 3 levels: strong, middle and weak. The possibility of agricultural flood risk in the future was demonstrated, including scope of disaster and degree of disaster loss in the 31 provinces. The possibility of flood risk will provide a theoretical reference for crop planting plan and flood prevention, and for further analysis of crop flood risk in China.

Key words

crop; flood disaster; information diffusion; risk analysis

cite

SUN Zhangli, ZHU Xiufang, PAN Yaozhong. Risk Analysis of Agricultural Flood in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2015,51(Sup.1):23-31.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.05.s1.004

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn