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标题

辽宁省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型的建立与应用

作者

李 琳 朱秀芳 孙章丽 张锦水

机构

北京师范大学资源学院,北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室

摘要

基于自然灾害风险理论,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、孕灾环境敏感性和防灾减灾能力四方面选取指 标,构建辽宁省短时暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重,建立风险评估模型.利用GIS空 间分析,从市级行政单元尺度和1km×1km 格网两种尺度出发,对辽宁省2013年“8.16”暴雨洪涝灾害进行评估.评估 结果表明:东部风险高,西部风险低,其中高风险和较高风险区主要分布在辽北、辽东北,东部低山丘陵区的西南地区,包 括铁岭、抚顺、辽阳、鞍山等地;低风险和轻微风险区主要分布在西部低山丘陵区、辽河平原中西部的朝阳、葫芦岛、锦州、 盘锦等地.市级、县级评估结果在风险分布范围上与实际灾情基本吻合,且在综合精度上均与直接经济损失值显著相关, 市级相关性更高,表明此次暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估结果较好,该模型具有一定的实际意义和应用价值.

关键词

暴雨洪涝灾害;风险评估;指数模型;辽宁省

引用

李 琳, 朱秀芳, 孙章丽, 张锦水.辽宁省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型的建立与应用[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 51(Sup.1): 49-56.

基金

国家高分辨率对地观测重大专项基金资助项目(民用部分);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(41401479)

分类号

X43

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.008

Title

Establishment and Application of Rainstorm-flood Disaster Risk Assessment Model in Liaoning Province

Author

LI Lin, ZHU Xiufang, SUN Zhangli, ZHANG Jinshui

Affiliations

College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University;State Key Laboratory of Earth Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University

Abstract

Natural disaster risk theory was applied to establish a real-time rainstorm-flood disaster risk assessment model in Liaoning province. Disaster-inducing factors, exposure of disaster bearing body, sensitivity of disaster environment and ability of disaster prevention and reduction were considered. Indicator weights in the model were determined through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This model and GIS spatial analysis were used to assess real time risk of rainstorm-flood disaster on August 16, 2013 in Liaoning province on both municipal scale and 1 km × 1 km grid scale. The result was presented as integrated index flood disaster risk index (FDRI). Risk was found to be generally higher in east area and lower in west area of Liaoning province. High and sub-high risk area distributed in the north and northeast of Liaoning province, and the east low hilly area in the southwest of Liaoning province, including Tieling, Fushun, Liaoyang and Anshan. Slight and low risk area distributed in the west low hilly area and the midwest of Liaohe River plain, including Chaoyang, Huludao, Panjin and Jinzhou. The risk distribution of assessment was basically in accord with the actual disaster area distribution on both municipal and county scales. Significant positive correlation was found between disaster statistics and flood disaster risk index especially on municipal scale. The above results indicate that the present model has strong practical significance and application value.

Key words

agricultural drought; vulnerability zoning; vulnerability curves; drought vulnerability

cite

LI Lin, ZHU Xiufang, SUN Zhangli, ZHANG Jinshui.Establishment and Application of Rainstorm-flood Disaster Risk Assessment Model in Liaoning Province [J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2015,51(Sup.1): 49-56.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.008

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn