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标题

基于历史相似案例的农业旱灾 灾情快速评估方法研究

作者

夏兴生 朱秀芳 潘耀忠 张锦水

机构

北京师范大学资源学院;北京师范大学 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室

摘要

目前有关基于历史相似案例的旱灾灾情评估研究报道甚少,本文详细介绍了基于历史相似案例的旱灾灾情评估技术流程,并以河南省为例,收集了2001年到2013年的该省农业旱灾相关数据,对2007年和2013年的农业旱灾受灾面积进行了进行基于历史相似案例的灾情评估。结果表明,只利用一次灾害历史事件进行灾情评估的结果不可靠,无法满足业务需求,基于两个以上(包括两个)历史相似案例的河南省旱灾灾情评估精度在77.72%和96.28%之间,且选取两个相似历史案例时评估精度最佳(评估精度在90%以上)。基于历史相似案例的旱灾灾情评估方法简单,操作容易,具有一定应用前景。

关键词

农业干旱,灾情评估,历史相似案例,河南

引用

夏兴生 ,朱秀芳, 潘耀忠, 张锦水. 基于历史相似案例的农业旱灾灾情快速评估方法研究[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(Sup.1):77-81.

基金

国家高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项基金资助项目(民用部分);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(41401479)

分类号

X43

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.012

Title

Assessing disaster loss from dataset of historically similar droughts

Author

XIA Xingsheng, ZHU Xiufang, PAN Yaozhong, ZHANG Jinshui

Affiliations

College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal Univercity;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University

Abstract

There are very few studies so far of disaster loss assessment based on disaster dataset of historically similar droughts. In this study, the technological flow of disaster loss assessment in terms of historically similar drought disaster dataset is introduced, then Henan Province is chosen as the study area to assess the area covered by drought disaster in 2007 using historical drought disaster dataset of 2001-2006 and to assess the area covered by drought disaster in 2013 using the historical drought disaster dataset of 2001-2012. Assessment of area covered by drought disaster is found to be unreliable when only one historically similar drought disaster data are used. The assessment precision is between 77.72% - 96.28% when more than two similar historical drought disaster data are used. It is an easy and promising method to assess disaster loss from historically similar drought disaster dataset.

Key words

Agricultural Drought; disaster losses assessment; similarly historical drought disaster; Henan

cite

XIA Xingsheng, ZHU Xiufang, PAN Yaozhong, ZHANG Jinshui.Assessing disaster loss from dataset of historically similar droughts [J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2015,51(Sup.1):77-81.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.012

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn