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标题

村镇居民交通时间模拟及其在 灾害风险评估中的应用

作者

籍裴希 孟耀斌 逯 超 周凌峰 何寿亮 叶 琬

机构

北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京师范大学民政部教育部减灾与应急管理研究院

摘要

本文尝试以覆盖我国24个省市共45个村镇样本的居民生活模式调研为基础,村镇居民的交通时间与易得 的空间指标进行建模.结果表明,村镇建成区面积Ab(hm2)与居民交通时间T(min)存在显著的负相关关系.其中,农业 从业者的交通时间Tf 与建成区面积Ab 关系最敏感,其回归模型为lnTf=-0.33·lnAb+4.38.二、三产业从业者可划 分为本村和外村从业者,外村从业者的交通时间Tw 接近本村从业者交通时间Tb 的3倍,其回归模型分别为lnTb= -0.23·lnAb+3.18、lnTw=-0.20·lnAb+4.28.本文应用上述模型对灾害情景下不同大小村镇不同从业人员的人群 室内室外分布进行了示例仿真.综上所述,村镇居民交通时间模型输入参数易获取,模型形式简单,可广泛用于突发事件 暴露评估以及灾害死亡人口快速评估,为风险评估和管理提供了准确的数据支持.

关键词

交通时间;灾害风险;村镇居民;建成区;城镇化

引用

籍裴希, 孟耀斌, 逯 超, 周凌峰, 何寿亮, 叶 琬.村镇居民交通时间模拟及其在 灾害风险评估中的应用[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015,51(Sup.1):145-151.

基金

国家科技支撑计划“村镇环境评价与预警平台建设”基金资助项目(2012BAJ24B04)

分类号

X4;U491;C912.82

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.023

Title

Travel time modeling of rural residents and application in disaster risk assessment

Author

JI Peixi, MENG Yaobin, LU Chao, ZHOU Lingfeng, HE Shouliang, Ye Wan

Affiliations

Key Laboratory of Environment Change and National Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University

Abstract

Modeling of human travel time is compelling for risk management and emergency response in a disaster. The established travel time models for urban area do not work for rural residents because of the spatial scattering of small villages or towns as well as the differences in living patterns. An effort to employ spatial indicator is reported to model travel times T (min) for rural residents, which has been obtained from a Human Activity of Rural REsidents' survey (HARRE survey) covering a total of 45 villages in 24 provinces of China. It is found that the rural residents’ traffic time is best explained by rural built up area (ha) with statistical significance. The travel time of farmers (Tf) relates to the built up area (Ab) by lnTf = -0.33∙lnAb + 4.38. The travel time of rural workers in non-agricultural sectors is modeled separately according to whether the workplace is in the dwelling village or not, the former travel time (Tb) relates to Ab by lnTb = -0.23∙lnAb + 3.18 and the latter travel time (Tw) by lnTw = -0.20∙lnAb + 4.28 implying Tw reaching about three times of Tb. With the above three formulae taken into account, the fraction of residents indoors and outdoors in a disaster scenario is simulated for three villages of different sizes (Ab). Due to the ready accessibility of input variable of Ab and simplicity in form, travel time model is expected to become a supportive tool for assessment and management of public security risks, and for exposure assessment and rapid estimation of life loss in a disaster emergency.

Key words

traffic time; disaster risk; rural residents; built up area; urbanization

cite

JI Peixi, MENG Yaobin , LU Chao, ZHOU Lingfeng, HE Shouliang, Ye Wan . Travel time modeling of rural residents and application in disaster risk assessment[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2015,51(Sup.1):145-151.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.s1.023

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn