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标题

基于CMIP5全球气候模式的中国典型区域干湿变化分析

作者

姜姗姗 占车生 李 淼 王飞宇 梁 伟

机构

北京师范大学水科学研究院;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室;水利部发展研究中心;中国科学院大学;陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院

摘要

基于CMIP5多全球气候模式数值模拟结果,包括空间分辨率0.5°的逐月历史气候数据和RCP2.6、RCP4.5、 RCP8.5情景下未来气候变化预估数据,利用潜在蒸散发和降水量构建能够表征地表干湿状况的湿润指数,对中国东部 季风区7个典型区1901—2100年干湿变化趋势进行了模拟和分析.结果表明:各分区在1901—2005年湿润指数均呈现 下降趋势,其中珠江、长江、淮河流域变化较为平缓,黄河、海河流域和东北地区波动较大.可见在过去的100多年中,东 部季风区整体上呈现不同程度的干旱化.在2006—2100年不同温室气体排放情景下,各分区的湿润指数呈现不同程度 的波动,除了黄河上游地区湿润指数呈现增长趋势外,其他区域没有明显的变湿趋势.

关键词

中国典型区域;气候变化;湿润指数;未来气候情景;CMIP5

引用

姜姗姗, 占车生, 李 淼, 王飞宇, 梁 伟. 基于CMIP5全球气候模式的中国 典型区域干湿变化分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(1):49-55.

基金

国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2015CB452701);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271003,41371043,51209224)

分类号

X820.3

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.01.012

Title

Analysis of dry and wet variations in typical regions of China based on a CMIP5 global climate model

Author

JANG Shanshan , ZHAN Chesheng, LI Miao, WANG Feiyu, LIANG Wei

Affiliations

College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle Relate Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences;Ministry of Water Resources Development Research Center;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1000494 Beijing; College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University

Abstract

Global climate model data, including historical climate simulation data and RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future estimation data from The Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to analyze the dry / wet variations of seven typical areas of the East Monsoon Area of China from 1901-2100 on a humid index detecting the dry / wet condition at the surface. It was found that from 1901-2005, the humid index in each partition gradually decreased. The humid index decreased slowly in the Pearl River, Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and downstream of the Yellow River. The humid index was volatile in the Yellow River, Haihe River and the northeastern region. Therefore in the past 100 years, the East Monsoon Area of China was in drought condition. The model predicts that from 2006-2100, under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emission, the humid index in all partition will be volatile, while upstream of the Yellow River the humid index will gradually increase from 2006 to 2100, changes in the remaining regions will not be significant.

Key words

the typical regional in China; climate change; humid index; future climate scenarios; CMIP5

cite

JANG Shanshan , ZHAN Chesheng, LI Miao, WANG Feiyu, LIANG Wei.Analysis of dry and wet variations in typical regions of China based on a CMIP5 global climate model [J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2016,52(1):49-55.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.01.012

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn