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标题

中国男篮职业联赛单节得失分与比赛结果相关性分析

作者

李笋南 马志鹏 李昀霏 宋陆陆

机构

北京师范大学体育与运动学院

摘要

篮球比赛由四节组成,每单节得失分与比赛结果得分有着内涵关联,对二者之间关系进行相关性分析,探究比赛的制胜规律,利于教练员、运动员合理安排战术、调整人员部署、控制比赛节奏,对取得最佳成绩有着重要指导作用。本文采用文献资料法,数理统计法对2014-2015中国男篮职业联赛406场比赛主客场单节得失分与比赛结果进行分析,结果显示:主队第三节分差与比赛结果分差相关性最高,客队第一节分差与比赛结果分差相关性最高,分别说明主队第三节得失分、客队第一节得失分对比赛结果影响最大。进一步分析,主队第三节得分均值最高,随该节领先分数增大胜率显著提升;客队第一节得分均值在四节中与主队差距最大,该节得分差与胜率关系变化与主队基本一致。建议:比赛中主队要巩固第三节得分,客队要努力缩小第一节与主队的得分差并可尝试双外援首发;客队在前三节累计落后4分以内通过第四节依存在50%最终取胜机会。

关键词

中国男子篮球; 职业联赛; 单节; 得失分; 相关性

引用

李笋南, 马志鹏, 李昀霏, 宋陆中国男篮职业联赛单节得失分与比赛结果相关性分析.[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(2):246-252.

基金

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(SKZZX2013063)

分类号

G841

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.02.023

Title

Correlation Analysis of Scoring and Losing Points in Single Quarter and Game Results of Chinese Basketball Association

Author

LI Sunnan, MA Zhipeng, LI Yunfei, SONG Lulu

Affiliations

College of Physical Education and Sports,Beijing Normal University

Abstract

Basketball game is divided into four quarters. The score of each single quarter and the result of a match are correlated. Correlation analysis between them thus helps coaches and athletes to make decisions about game tactics, players and physical fitness allocations in order to win a game. Statistics analysis is used to make correlation analysis between each single quarter scores and game result. Data are collected from 406 matches in the 2014-2015 season from the Chinese Basketball Association. It is found that the score-difference of the third quarter are most correlated to the score-difference of the game for home team. The score-difference of the first quarter are most correlated to the score-difference of the game for guest team. Further analysis shows that the highest average score is in the third quarter and the chance to win a game increases significantly. Correlations between the first-quarter score and chance to win the game are almost the same for both host and guest teams, while the difference of average scores between home and road teams is biggest in the first quarter. Therefore in order to win a game, the home team should focus on scoring in the third quarter. The guest team should narrow the gap with home team in the first quarter, and try double foreign lineups when necessary. There is a 50% chance for the guest team to win if they are 4 scores behind the home team in the first three quarters.

Key words

Chinese Basketball Association;Professional league; single quarter; scoring and losing points; correlation

cite

LI Sunnan, MA Zhipeng, LI Yunfei, SONG Lulu. Correlation Analysis of Scoring and Losing Points in Single Quarter and Game Results of Chinese Basketball Association[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2016,52(2):246-252.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.02.023

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn