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标题

河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析

作者

王月华 李占玲 赵韦

机构

中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院

摘要

水资源是维持内陆河流域复合生态系统的重要纽带. 大气降水作为流域水资源的重要来源, 其时空分布及强度变化会对流域生态水文过程有着重要影响. 本文以河西走廊内陆河流域19 个气象站1960 —2012 年逐日降水资料为基础, 构建了最大1 d 降水量、最大连续5 d 降水量和非常湿天降水总量等极端降水指标, 通过采用多种极值概率分布模型探讨研究区极端降水指标在频次、强度和贡献率方面的变化, 从而为分析极端降水对流域生态水文过程的影响提供科学依据. 结果表明, 基于GEV最优概率分布模型, 得出研究区超过5 年一遇的最大1 d 降水量、最大连续5 d 降水量、非常湿天降水总量近年来发生次数有所增加, 尤其是2000 年以后增加更为明显;研究区极端降水强度在2000 年以后也明显增强;在极端降水量对年降水总量的贡献率方面, 近年来石羊河流域总体呈现增加趋势, 黑河流域上游呈现增加趋势、 中游和下游以下降趋势为主, 疏勒河流域上游和下游呈现增加趋势, 中游则以下降趋势为主.

关键词

极端降水; 概率分布模型; 频次; 强度; 贡献率中

引用

王月华 李占玲 赵韦. 河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析.[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(3)333-339.

基金

北京高等学校青年英才计划资助项目(YETP0654) ; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(35832015028)

分类号

P333.2

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.03.014

Title

Characteristics of precipitation extremes for inland river basins in Hexi Corridor

Author

WANG Yuehua, LI Zhanling, ZHAO Wei

Affiliations

School of Water Resources and Environment , China University of Geosciences (Beijing)

Abstract

Water resources are important in maintaining the complex ecological system over inland river basins in arid areas . Precipitation is the main source for local water resources , and its temporal and spatial changes have great effect on eco-hydrological processes . The characteristics of precipitation extremes in the inland river basin have changed greatly due to global and regional warming . Based on daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2012 at 19 meteorological stations over three inland river basins in Hexi Corridor , three indicators , annual maximum precipitation for 1 day ( AM1D ) , annual maximum precipitation for 5 days (AM5D) and total precipitation in wet days ( TWD ) are proposed to represent precipitation extremes in the study area . Five probability distribution models are used to analyze changes in frequency , intensity and contribution rate of precipitation extremes . GEV model is found to perform best to fit probability distribution of three indictors . AM1D , AM5D and TWD over 5-year return period have increased . Intensity of precipitation extremes has increased markedly after 2000 . Contribution rate of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is increasing in the whole Shiyang River basin , the upper reach of Heihe River basin and the upper and lower reaches of Shule River basin during the past years , but decreasing in the middle and lower reaches of Heihe River basin and the middle reach of Shule River basin .

Key words

precipitation extremes ; probability density function ; occurrence number ; intensity; contribution rate

cite

WANG Yuehua, LI Zhanling, ZHAO Wei. Characteristics of precipitation extremes for inland river basins in Hexi Corridor [J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science), 2016,52(3):333-339.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.03.014

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
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