首页    编委会    编辑部    历任主编    获奖信息    征稿简则    友情链接    出版道德    English    旧版主页
  在线期刊
       最新录用
       当期目次
       过刊浏览

  下载专区
       版权协议
       征稿范文
       来稿登记表
       录用证明

  联系我们

投稿e-mail: jbnuns_sub@bnu.edu.cn

主编e-mail: jbnuns_eic@bnu.edu.cn

办公地点:北京师范大学 科技楼A区216,218,220室

电话:(010)58807851,58802050,58807872,58807713

通信处:北京市海淀区新街口外大街19号北京师范大学理科学报编辑部

邮政编码:100875

办公室e-mail: jbnuns@bnu.edu.cn

本网站暂不提供全文下载,如需全文下载请点击

中国知网

 

标题

福建省降水极值的非平稳性特征及其对极端降水风险影响研究

作者

黄婕; 高路; 陈兴伟; 陈莹; 刘梅冰

机构

福建师范大学地理科学学院; 福建师范大学地理研究所; 福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心

摘要

变化环境下降水序列具有普遍的非平稳性。为深入探究降水极值的非平稳特征及其对极端降水风险变化的影响,本文以福建省22个站点为例,针对表征降水序列非平稳特征的两个重要变量均值和方差,利用经验模态分解法(EMD)、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了1960~2012年前汛期、后汛期降水极值序列非平稳特征;运用贡献分析法分析降水极值序列均值和方差变化对非平稳的降水极值确定性趋势的增量贡献;构建非平稳模型,基于均值、方差趋势探讨极端降水的风险变化特征。结果表明:1)福建省前、后汛期降水极值序列非平稳性较强,前汛期闽西、闽北、闽中方差增加显著,部分站点方差变化对降水极值确定性趋势的增量贡献较大;后汛期全省降水极值均值普遍呈现增加趋势,对降水极值的确定性趋势起主导作用。2)福建省前汛期极端降水风险增大的站点位于闽北地区,因为降水序列方差的线性增加趋势导致极端降水量显著增加;后汛期极端降水风险增大的站点位于闽西和闽南两个区域,其中多数站点因为均值存在增加趋势导致极端降水量增加,但是增加幅度平缓。3)降水序列方差的改变更加显著地影响了极端降水重现风险,变化环境下极端降水趋势和风险研究需充分考虑降水序列的非平稳性。

关键词

降水极值;非平稳性;灾害风险;福建省

引用

黄婕; 高路; 陈兴伟; 陈莹; 刘梅冰. 福建省降水极值的非平稳性特征及其对极端降水风险影响研究.[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(5)603-609.

基金

福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项基金资助项目( 2014R1034-6);国家自然科学基金资助项目( 41301031, 41501106);教育部留学回国人员 科研启动基金资助项目( 2014-1685);福建省教育厅A类资助项目( JA14083);福建省自然科学基金青年创新基金资助项目( 2015J 05080)

分类号

P942, P932

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.05.012

Title

Non-stationary Characteristics of Precipitation Extreme and Its Impact on Disaster Risk in Fujian

Author

HUANG Jie; GAO Lu; CHEN Xingwei; CHEN Ying; LIU Meibing

Affiliations

College of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University; Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University; Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters

Abstract

Precipitation series normally have non-stationary characteristics under changing environment. To explore in-depth non-stationary characteristics of precipitation extremes and its influence on risk of extreme precipitation, temporal-spatial characteristics of the mean and variance of precipitation extremes series were analyzed by empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Mann-Kendall test. These non-stationary characteristics were derived from 22 meteorological stations in Fujian Province in pre- and post-flood period from 1960-2012. Contribution analysis was also done to investigate contribution of mean and variance trends to precipitation extreme increments. Temporal characteristic of extreme precipitation risk was explored based on trends of mean and variance in non-stationary model. Precipitation extreme series were found to show significant non-stationary characteristics in both pre- and post-flood season. In the first flood season, variance had a remarkable increase in the west, north and central of Fujian while the trend of variance showed a bigger contribution to trend of precipitation extremes series. In the second flood season, the mean of precipitation extremes series increased widely in Fujian, playing a leading role in the increasing trend of precipitation extreme. As a whole, precipitation extreme had a more general and obvious increasing trend. The risk of extreme precipitation in the first flood season was enhanced in northern Fujian, because variance of precipitation extreme series had a liner increasing trend leading to increased extreme precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation in the second flood season increased in west and south Fujian. The increasing trend in mean has led to the increasing trend in extreme precipitation in most stations. But the trend was gentle. Change in variance affected risk of extreme precipitation significantly. It is necessary to take non-stationary characteristics of precipitation series into account in the study of extreme precipitation trend and the risk of extreme precipitation under changing environment.

Key words

Solar chromosphere; solar flare; solar microflare; region labelling; self-organized criticality; power-law distribution; Poisson process

cite

HUANG Jie; GAO Lu; CHEN Xingwei; CHEN Ying; LIU Meibing. Non-stationary Characteristics of Precipitation Extreme and Its Impact on Disaster Risk in Fujian [J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science), 2016,52(5):603-609.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.05.012

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn