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标题

中国气象灾害对宏观经济增长的影响分析

作者

史培军 应卓蓉

机构

北京师范大学 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室; 北京师范大学 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;民政部/教育部 减灾与应急管理研究院

摘要

自然灾害一直伴随着人类社会的生产、生活与发展,气象灾害尤甚。据中国气象局资料统计,在各类自然灾害中,气象灾害损失大约占到70%以上。本文在对中国气象灾害时空分布及趋势分析的基础上,运用中国31个省(市)2004年至2013年的气象灾害数据及次年社会经济数据,分析了气象灾害对各省(市)次年经济增长的影响,结果表明:以直接经济损失和受灾人口为度量的气象灾害,短期内,会对各省第二年GDP增长率产生较为显著的正面影响,这种正面影响受到城市化率、开放程度、教育水平、交通状况、医疗卫生水平等社会经济因素的影响。

关键词

气象灾害;国内生产总值(GDP);增长率;影响评价;中国

引用

李小雁 ,马育军.地球关键带科学与水文土壤学研究进展.[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(6):747-753.

基金

*国家自然科学基金创新研究群体资助项目( 41321001)

分类号

S151; P343

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.06.012

Title

Impacts of Meteorological Disaster on Economic Growth in China

Author

SHI Peijun, YING Zhuorong

Affiliations

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University

Abstract

Natural disasters especially meteorological disasters can lead to considerable fatality and economic loss. Statistics from The Chinese Meteorological Administration indicates that loss due to meteorological disaster accounts for 70% or more of all natural disasters. The spatial distribution and temporal trends of such losses are analyzed in the present paper. The effect of meteorological disaster on macro-economic growth is examined based on social economic data and meteorological disaster data in 31 provinces in China from 2004 - 2013. Loss due to meteorological disasters has been found to have significant positive effect on economic growth rate in the following year at the province level. Such a positive effect is influenced by social and economic factors, including urbanization rate, government size, openness, education level, traffic and level of medical services.

Key words

Meteorological disaster; Gross domestic product (GDP); Growth rate; Impact assessment; China

cite

SHI Peijun, YING Zhuorong. Impacts of Meteorological Disaster on Economic Growth in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science), 2016,52(6):747-753.

DOI

10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.06.012

Copyright © 2014 Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)
Designed by Mr. Sun Chumin. Email: cmsun@mail.bnu.edu.cn